Are our markets too optimistic?

Rupee is trading at sub 40 level against dollar. And I wonder why are our markets headed northwards.

While after the rate cut by 50 basis points in US, stock markets across the globe have shown high degree of buoyancy, there are whispers that one hear about how Bernanke has just declared a war on dollar. Crude is already beyond $80 a barrel. Some oil traders expect the crude to touch $100 in about 6 months. CNBC also reported in the morning that US treasury is likely to bust the credit limit of US $8.9 trillion (debt of the US government) by 1st October. So now they will approach US congress to issue more bonds. Very aggressive (or should I say desperate) rate cut also is an indication that probably US is headed for or is already in the middle of recession. Increasing crude prices, increased money supply, weak consumer confidence would certainly push US economy into recession if it is already not in one.

A weak US economy would hit IT companies and our exporters. Even FII inflows & FDI may dry-up. And add to that the fears of return of sub-prime, unwinding of yen carry trade, and upcoming general elections. All these indicate a chaos in the financial markets in India over next 4-6 months. Am I just being too pessimistic? Is it wise to be too optimistic about stocks in the short term?