US slowdown and Emerging economies

While US economy is cruising along its journey towards slowdown, how will the emerging economies and Asia be impacted? Will these economies continue to flourish?

The consensus evolving amongst the bulls in the emerging markets is that, as US slows down, more and more capital will flow into emerging markets and hence US slow down is indeed the good news! This hypothesis would be ok only if the developing economies are insensitive to US economy, i.e. they are driven primarily by their own internal consumption and not on account of exports.

Let's look at the export numbers of some of the emerging economies:

China:

Exports (2006-07): $ 974 billion
Exports (2006-07) as a % of GDP: 37% approx
Exports by region (2007-08): EU (20%), USA (19%), HK (15%), Japan (8%), Asean (8%)

Source: Wikipedia

India:

India has seen her exports grow at 20% over the last few years.

Exports (2006-07): $ 125 billion
Exports (2006-07) as a % of GDP: 15% approx
Exports by region: EU (22%), Africa (19%), North America (16%), Asia (24%)
Exports by Industry: Engg Goods (20%), Petro Products (16%), Chemical (14%), Gems & Jewllery (13%), Textiles (13%)

Source: Department of Commerce

Brazil:

Exports (2006-07): $ 138 billion
Exports (2006-07) as a % of GDP: 13% approx

Source: Wikipedia

Russia:

Exports (2006-07): $ 317 billion
Exports (2006-07) as a % of GDP: 18% approx
Exports by region (2007-08): Netherlands (10%), Germany (8.3%), Italy (7.9%), China (5.5%), Asean (8%)

Source: Wikipedia

China could be the hardest hit by slowdown in USA. And countries such as Brazil, Russia, and India may continue to grow based on their domestic demand and may continue to attract global capital.